AYESHA RASCOE, HOST:
Along with the ongoing war in Gaza and fighting on Israel's northern border with Lebanon, there's another big question about what's going to happen in the Middle East - if and when Iran will retaliate for the killing of a Hamas leader on its soil. Iran blames Israel for last month's assassination of Ismail Haniyeh and says the attack requires, quote, "a harsh punishment." Joining us now is Firas Maksad, the senior director of strategic outreach at the Middle East Institute. Welcome to the program.
FIRAS MAKSAD: Thank you.
RASCOE: What's Iran's calculus right now in terms of when or whether to strike?
MAKSAD: Ayesha, Iran has been very clear that the assassination of the Hamas leader on its soil in its capital under its protection is a violation of its sovereignty, but more important, it actually detracts from its deterrence against Israel. So from an Iranian perspective, there is an absolute necessity to restore that deterrence, that balance of power by retaliating. However, it is very tricky, and I would argue that the Israeli prime minister has put Iran in a catch-22 situation, a policy dilemma, if you may. If it reacts too harshly, it gives Israel perhaps the pretext it's looking for to broaden the war, especially against - sorry, Iran's ally in Lebanon, Hezbollah. But if the response, the Iranian response, is judged as being too weak, that it further erodes Iran's deterrence. So it's a balancing act, and the Iranians are taking their time trying to figure out the path forward.
RASCOE: We know that the U.S. is pushing for new cease-fire talks this week to end the fighting in Gaza. Will that be a factor at all in Iran's thinking?
MAKSAD: They're on record saying that it won't be. In fact, you know, U.S. diplomacy has been very active, and that's precisely why they've pushed so hard - the administration has pushed so hard for this cease-fire. They hope that it would preclude Iran from responding in a way that would broaden this war. But the Iranians have been very clear that they will continue to support an end to the fighting with, you know, the Israeli assault on Gaza, but that that would be very separate from the need to respond to the violation of their sovereignty.
RASCOE: For months, we've been talking about escalation in the region. What's your reading of the situation today? Are we more at risk now than ever?
MAKSAD: This is the most dangerous moment in the Middle East in years, maybe decades - certainly the most dangerous moment since the October 7 attacks some 10 months ago. Lebanon, just to the north of Israel, where Iran has its most powerful ally, Hezbollah, is in the bull's eye of this. Not just the Israeli prime minister, but there's a broad consensus in Israel that the balance of power that Iran has helped build on Israel's northern border is unsustainable. So given that, also - sorry, Israel targeted Hezbollah's chief of staff some 10 days ago - really a day before Haniyeh was assassinated in Tehran - there is a fear that Hezbollah's reaction would then prompt Israel into a broader war in Lebanon. So yes, this is a very dangerous moment in the Middle East.
RASCOE: That's Firas Maksad from the Middle East Institute. Thank you so much for speaking with us.
MAKSAD: My pleasure. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
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