STEVE INSKEEP, HOST:
Back in 2022, when Russian forces attacked Ukraine, a problem was apparent from the start - Russia had not sent remotely enough troops to occupy the largest country in Europe, other than Russia itself - didn't work out as Russia expected. Now the Ukrainian forces have seized hundreds of square miles of Russia, the opposite issue applies. Ukraine hardly has the troops to hold such a large part of the largest country in Europe, period. But the Russians have yet to throw them out.
We've reported on this incursion as it looks to Ukrainians, but how might it look from Moscow? We've called Sergey Radchenko. He's with the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies. And he's on Skype. Good morning, sir.
SERGEY RADCHENKO: Morning.
INSKEEP: So if you're Vladimir Putin and you're sitting in the Kremlin and you get news of Ukrainian troops on Russian territory, how does that look to you?
RADCHENKO: Well, it's frustrating. And you could see from Putin's reaction when - he had a meeting after the Ukrainian incursion. He did not look happy. His confidence seemed gone. And, of course, now he has promised to kick out the Ukrainian invaders, as he calls them. But it has really been an embarrassing episode for Putin.
INSKEEP: And when you talk about kicking out the Ukrainian invaders, I'm sure if you're Putin, you'd like that happen today. You'd like that to happen yesterday. But it's been about a week, I think.
RADCHENKO: Well, the Ukrainian incursion began on August 6, and it immediately became apparent that it was much larger than the previous cross-border raids, which posed a significant challenge to the Russians because their forces were not prepared. So now they're pulling reserves into the area. Now, there's no doubt in my mind that over the long term or medium term, they'll be able to deal with this incursion. But it is still very, very embarrassing for the regime.
INSKEEP: When you say pulling reserves into the area, I want to understand what that means. Does that mean they're not having to divert troops from Ukraine itself in order to respond to this attack on Russian soil?
RADCHENKO: Well, it's quite possible that they will have to redeploy at least some of the troops from the Donbas front line, where they have been making gains. In fact, it's probably one of the reasons that the Ukrainians carried out this incursion because they have been losing ground to the Russians. But I think a more important reason from Kyiv's perspective is to show that Ukraine remains in the game, that they continue the struggle against Russian aggression, that they still have some steam and to build up morale in Ukraine itself but also signal to the Russians.
INSKEEP: Now, when you say signal to the Russians - obviously, the Russian leadership knows what's going on. The rest of the world knows what's going on. If you're an ordinary Russian media consumer and you get most of your news from state TV, do you hear much about this?
RADCHENKO: Well, Putin has his own narrative that he sells to the public - that is that everything is going according to the plan. It has been going according to the plan for the last three years. You know, this war was supposed to take three days, and yet now Russia is still mired in this conflict. And with - the kind of reporting that the Russians have been exposed to from the Kursk region, where the incursion is taking place, is that of a desperation of local Russians who are saying, we have been abandoned by our government. And some of that information is seeping through, I think, to the larger public. And maybe that's also part of Zelenskyy's calculus.
INSKEEP: Oh, now, that's an interesting point. No matter what the media may say, I mean, people have relatives in Kursk, and they're hearing stories about this through the grapevine, I suppose.
RADCHENKO: Well, sure. And we also tend to think that Russia is like North Korea, that all the media is strictly controlled. And to a certain extent, that's true, but we have seen reporting from Russian newspapers like Kommersant, for example, which is a mainstream Russian newspaper, that actually shows desperation on the ground and shows the local authorities being utterly unable to deal with this incursion.
INSKEEP: I'm curious about the overall situation as seen from Russia. I have followed news in the last year or so as the Russian economy has seemed to stabilize and even improve. They seem to have endured the massive, crippling Western sanctions and so forth that were imposed in 2022 and beyond. If you're trying to be realistic in the Kremlin, can you conclude that you're in a sustainable situation, that you can hold on for another year, another couple of years or however long the war takes?
RADCHENKO: Well, until this recent incursion, Putin thought that the wind was blowing into his sails. Ukraine was losing support internationally, by which I mean there has been this long, protracted discussion in the U.S. Congress about aid. It was obviously passed, but it seems like it's the last aid for the foreseeable future. We have a U.S. election coming up, and nobody knows what will happen to American foreign policy after this.
So I think Putin was thinking that this situation plays into his hands. And of course, the Russians have been making gains on the ground. But now, with this operation, which is - by the way - daring operation - it's very risky for the Ukrainians. But I think the purpose here is to show that it's not that simple. Ukraine still has the capacity to fight back and to wage effective warfare on Russia's own territory. Zelenskyy said, we're bringing this war back to Russia.
INSKEEP: Sergey Radchenko is with the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies and joined us via Skype - pleasure talking with you, sir. Thank you very much.
RADCHENKO: Thank you for having me. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
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