ARI SHAPIRO: Ukraine's government is looking at a major reshuffle just as the country deals with the deadliest Russian attack this year. Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba is one of Ukraine's most well-known faces abroad, and he offered to step down today along with a string of other officials. Phillips O'Brien is watching this from his post at the University of St. Andrews School of International Relations in Scotland. Welcome to ALL THINGS CONSIDERED.
PHILLIPS O'BRIEN: Great. Thanks for having me.
SHAPIRO: What's behind all these government ministers submitting their resignations? Why now?
O'BRIEN: Well, it does look like President Zelenskyy - and, of course, he's not come out and said it. But it does look like President Zelenskyy feels that it's time to change a lot of the senior leadership. I mean, this phase of the war has been going on for 2 1/2 years. People do get tired. They get worn out in a role. Zelenskyy might feel that the government needs more energy or a new direction. So we don't know quite what he's thinking, but he certainly believes he wants change. We also, by the way, don't know if these people are going to come back in different jobs. So we need to see how it all shakes out.
SHAPIRO: Well, is that a sign that Zelenskyy is displeased with how the war is going, with how his team is working?
O'BRIEN: Well, it could be a sign that he sort of feels that it needs more energy and a new direction. Remember, he did earlier move aside the lead general, General Zaluzhnyi, which he changed because he felt that the military needed a different direction, and that was just over - or just under a year ago - for General Syrskyi. So he has shown a willingness to make significant command changes when he feels a new direction is needed. It will be very interesting to see particularly with a man called Oleksandr Kamyshin. Kamyshin has been one of the most important figures in the government. He was a minister for strategic industries. Now, he has stepped aside, but it might be also that he's going to be brought back in an even more important role. We just don't know.
SHAPIRO: Is a cabinet shakeup likely to substantially change the course of the war?
O'BRIEN: Well, there's two things that you might be looking at. We do know the foreign minister is stepping down. It might be that the feeling is that a new foreign minister might have - you know, will be listened to differently, that maybe the feeling is, say, that Washington is no longer listening to the Ukrainian foreign minister or foreign office. And when Ukraine comes and says, you know, can we strike Russia? They're told, oh, you again with the same request - we don't want to hear it. So it might be that they just think a new personnel might be listened to a bit more intently and provide a new voice. So, you know, it's not going to automatically change things. It's not going to fundamentally change the way the war is being fought. But it could just be it's time for more energy.
SHAPIRO: So what are the risks to changing this lineup while Ukraine is also trying to hold onto territory that it recently captured in western Russia and also trying to hold off Russian attacks in the east?
O'BRIEN: Well, there don't seem to be too many changes right now for, you know, the military. The defense secretary is staying. So mostly the changes seem to be more political or in terms of military production. The military production changes might even lead to the present person getting promoted. So I wouldn't expect this to have a massive military effect right now.
SHAPIRO: Zelenskyy is expected to visit the U.S. and meet with President Biden later this month.
O'BRIEN: Yeah.
SHAPIRO: And he's been saying that what Ukraine needs most is long-range weapons...
O'BRIEN: Yeah.
SHAPIRO: ...From the United States. Do you expect anything to come of that White House meeting?
O'BRIEN: I mean, it would be nice to think, but probably not. The Biden administration has consistently kept Ukraine from having long-range weapons until far too late. But time and again, the Biden administration's fears of escalation are shown to be wrong. But they still hold off, they hold off and they hold off - and it lengthens the war. It almost seems now that this final step is one the Biden administration is too scared to undertake. One hopes they can because Ukraine needs long range strike. But I don't think, you know, you can get your hopes up too much for it right now.
SHAPIRO: That's Phillips O'Brien, professor of strategic studies at the University of St. Andrews. Thank you very much.
O'BRIEN: Thank you. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
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