ALBUQUERQUE, N.M. — On a warm Albuquerque evening with the majestic Sandia Mountains in the distance, New Mexico Democratic Congressman Gabe Vasquez is rallying supporters with a chant.
They're using a common Spanish refrain this time of year: "Si, se puede," which translates to "yes we can."
The supporters were celebrating the launch of Vasquez's new Albuquerque campaign office. Harley motorcycle riders, military veterans, state politicians and retirees all gathered from different corners of this large district in southern New Mexico, where two of the biggest issues in this election — immigration and abortion rights — are at the heart of a tightly-contested U.S. House race.
Democrats and Republicans both think they can win the state's Second Congressional District — one of the swingiest districts in the country. However, the outcome is anyone’s guess for this largely rural corner of the state that has flipped red to blue and back again for more than 50 years.
Vasquez's supporters believe the freshman congressman will be re-elected easily, even as he's facing a tough rematch. Vasquez beat former Republican Congresswoman Yvette Herrell by only 1,350 votes in 2022.
"The momentum is behind him. He's done an incredible job," said state Sen. Antonio "Moe" Maestas.
"I think he's probably got a better job this time," said Karin Kalodimos, a new resident to the district from Nashville.
"As you can tell by the turnout, people are energized," said state Rep. Art De la Cruz.
The Second Congressional District stretches from Albuquerque to the state’s borders with Mexico and Texas. Vasquez likes to remind supporters the 2nd is larger than the state of Pennsylvania.
In an interview with NPR following a recent tour of Albuquerque's Real Time Crime Center, Vasquez said he is also bullish about his chances.
"We have worked our butts off to make sure that the people of this district are represented," he said. "I know that there's a lot of national turmoil. But in New Mexico, politics truly are local and in the second district I have shown up for people. I think that's going to come out in the election results."
A focus on crime and the border
Three hours south of Albuquerque at a sports bar in Las Cruces, N.M., Herrell is meeting with Republican supporters
She argues she’s poised to avenge her loss against Vasquez since the issues are on her side.
"They want a secure border. They want a better economy. You know, they want safe neighborhoods. They want a good education for their children," Herrell told NPR about voters in the community. "It always seems to be coalescing around those issues in the Second Congressional District."
Herrell is hitting Vasquez on crime and border issues — after all, Albuquerque and Las Cruces boast some of the highest crime rates in the country.
And supporters like Rebecca Dow, who is running for the New Mexico state House, says border issues hit different here.
"I know people say every community and every city is a border community now, but we've been living this, we've been living it," she said.
That’s why Republicans angling to keep control of the U.S. House say this seat is among the top dozen races to flip this cycle.
Still, Herrell’s supporters concede there’s some headwinds, including Democratic redistricting in 2021 that shifted the district more blue.
Democrats are talking about abortion to blunt GOP attacks
It marks one of many bitter turns in this fight
And while Republicans think they have the upper hand on the issues, Democrats are outraising and outspending Herrell dramatically.
They’ve also leaned into crime and border issues, while simultaneously blunting Republican attacks with their own on access to abortion.
"When you are very poor state and you've got people living 200-plus miles from a hospital or a health care provider, it's hard," Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham said following a recent event with Vasquez.
They joined other state and local officials for the groundbreaking of a new reproductive health clinic
Supporters argue the new facility could be a major lifeline for women in this state and beyond.
It’s all part of what makes this a critical race in what Lujan Grisham concedes are challenging political times.
"People are anxious and frustrated and angry at elected officials for a number of valid reasons," she said. "You know, it's hard out there."
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