A MARTÍNEZ, HOST:
The swing state of Nevada currently has two Democratic U.S. senators and a Republican governor. In the past four presidential elections, it has gone for the Democrat, but not by much. Registration numbers between the two main parties are pretty even, and there are a lot of independents. So what does it take to win in the Silver State? Jon Ralston has been writing about Nevada politics since 1986. He's the founder and editor-in-chief of the nonprofit news site The Nevada Independent. Now, of the six swing states, Jon, Nevada has the fewest electoral college votes with six. So does that put it lowest on the importance list for the candidates?
JON RALSTON: Well, I'm offended by that notion, A.
MARTÍNEZ: (Laughter).
RALSTON: But I will tell you that I think because we have fewer votes than, for instance, the blue wall states in the Midwest, that you could argue we're not as important. But we're getting plenty of attention from the campaigns, the candidates themselves, and it seems that there's a surrogate here almost every day from the Harris-Walz campaign. And so while we may not be the deciding state, it's also not impossible. There are plenty of scenarios where Nevada could decide everything.
MARTÍNEZ: Clark and Washoe counties take up - what? - 90% - right? - around that, Jon, of Nevada's population?
RALSTON: That's right.
MARTÍNEZ: Yeah. And the 15 other counties of Nevada, they voted overwhelmingly red in 2020. Same in 2016. Could that factor into Republican thinking in that, well, we got pretty much every county in Nevada except for the two big ones? If they can make inroads, maybe they can win.
RALSTON: I think that is exactly what the thinking is. You know, Trump is going to win by huge landslides in those 15 counties between Reno and Las Vegas. And Las Vegas, or Clark County where Las Vegas is, has about 70% of the electorate, and the Democrats used to have a double-digit lead in registration here. It's now down to about 7%. So I think they think that if they can cut into that margin in Clark County, they have a chance. And I think they're right.
MARTÍNEZ: What do you think will drive voters to the polls in Nevada this election cycle?
RALSTON: Well, even though we're not a border state, we do have a fairly large population of undocumented immigrants. So the border issues do have more resonance here than you might think. On the Democratic side, there is an abortion issue on the ballot, and I think the Democrats think that could be a deciding factor on their side.
MARTÍNEZ: There is also a U.S. Senate race in Nevada. Tell us about what's going on with that race.
RALSTON: Yes. That's the first term Jacky Rosen, who's a Democrat who's running against Sam Brown, who has war injuries and is telling that story over and over again. He hasn't been in Nevada that long. He ran for the Senate last time and lost in the primary. And I think the Republicans are very, very concerned about his viability since almost every poll that has been released with the caveat that polling Nevada is very difficult shows Sam Brown down by about double digits.
MARTÍNEZ: Now, Rosen did not wind up going to the Democratic National Convention. Is it because she felt her lead in Nevada was strong enough that she didn't need to go?
RALSTON: I think that's part of it, yes. Absolutely. But I think also - and this is typical - this is what Catherine Cortez Masto, her colleague in the Senate, did last election that she barely won by 8,000 votes. And that is to kind of put an arm's length between herself and the Democratic Party and the Biden administration, which, in some ways, is comical because, of course, she supported Biden, and she's a Democrat. But her entire campaign is how bipartisan she has been.
MARTÍNEZ: Now, one of the things about Nevada voting is that a lot of voters are independents or at least registered as independents. But, Jon, there's a wrinkle to that, right?
RALSTON: There sure is. I mean, this is how it's changed here, too, A, is that about 40% of the electorate here, registered voters are now not with major parties, but a lot of them were auto-registered as nonpartisan voters under an automatic voter registration law that was passed a few legislative sessions ago. And so that explosion of voters may be misleading in the sense that a lot of these people either may not know that they were registered or may not care that they were registered. The key to winning Nevada campaigns now on a statewide level, whether it's a Senate race or a presidential race or a gubernatorial race, is to find out who the independent voters really are. They either lean left or lean right, and you got to find yours.
MARTÍNEZ: Jon Ralston of The Nevada Independent. Jon, thank you.
RALSTON: My pleasure. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
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