STEVE INSKEEP, HOST:
We follow the escalation of combat in the Middle East. Israel is using text messages and videos to tell people in southern Lebanon to evacuate their homes and get away from any building where Hezbollah stores weapons. One of the videos was posted last night by a spokesman for the Israel Defense Forces, Rear Admiral Daniel Hagari.
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DANIEL HAGARI: The IDF will engage in extensive, precise strikes against terror targets which have been embedded widely throughout Lebanon.
INSKEEP: Israel says this morning, it has struck 300 different locations, and Lebanon's health ministry says scores of people have been killed in those airstrikes. In recent days, Israel also exploded thousands of Hezbollah communications devices in Lebanon, and the group has fired rockets across the border far into Israel. Lina Khatib is following all this. She's at the think tank Chatham House and is an expert on Arab politics. Welcome to the program.
LINA KHATIB: Thank you.
INSKEEP: Are we marching toward a full-on war here?
KHATIB: There are many signs that we could be. But it's still not inevitable 'cause right now, despite the escalation, the situation remains relatively contained in the sense that Israel is targeting Hezbollah sites and not targeting indiscriminately in Lebanon.
INSKEEP: I guess we would ask, what would make it a full-on war? Would that be an Israeli invasion across the border into Lebanon?
KHATIB: Absolutely. Any ground invasion is automatically war, which would necessitate looking at the situation very differently from what we are seeing right now. Of course, that would be far more dangerous and actually far more risky - actually, far riskier for Israel, as well.
INSKEEP: Oh, that's an interesting point. I've heard the analysis that they have at the moment. Hezbollah on the defensive, Hezbollah is wounded, but Hezbollah might even gain strength. If Lebanon were invaded, they would have a cause.
KHATIB: Yeah, because they've done it before. I mean, Israel had invaded Lebanon in the past, and this came at a very high cost because Hezbollah is prepared for a ground invasion. It knows the terrain in Lebanon really well. It has tunnels all over Southern Lebanon. It has trained its fighters and deployed its military arsenal in anticipation of a ground invasion. So in a way, a ground invasion is the kind of asymmetrical warfare that Hezbollah might benefit from and have a bit of an upper hand through.
INSKEEP: So the Israelis are doing more and more without doing that. Do you also perceive Hezbollah hanging back to some degree and avoiding any step that would provoke a full-on war?
KHATIB: Hezbollah is being careful to try to push things as much as it can but falling short of sparking full-on war because it knows that full-on war would not be in its interest. There is no appetite for that kind of scenario amongst the Lebanese public, which is very different from the situation in 2006, when Israel and Hezbollah had their last war. And so Hezbollah will continue, I think, to launch rockets at Israel 'cause Hezbollah needs to save face and show it is not defeated. But at the same time, Israel is also determined to try to, as much as possible, degrade Hezbollah's military capacity.
INSKEEP: I want to note that Iran is an ally, sponsor, supporter of Hezbollah. The Iranians - also been attacked by Israel - also seem to want to hold back from a full-on war. Are they on exactly the same page and with exactly the same interests as Hezbollah in this case?
KHATIB: Absolutely. Hezbollah and Iran are basically the same camp. Iran does not want full-on war either because also, Iran worries about its own security. Iran itself does not want to be dragged into this war. And if Hezbollah finds itself being under existential threat, this may necessitate Iranian involvement, and that's the last thing that Iran wants. And this is part of the reason why Hezbollah is trying to keep the situation contained.
INSKEEP: This moment of violence comes as world leaders, including from the Middle East, will be meeting at the United Nations General Assembly in New York. Other than speeches where they will say something about peace, can you imagine anything constructive coming out of that for this conflict?
KHATIB: Unfortunately not. We've been in this conflict for - what? - almost a year because this is part of the wider conflict in Gaza. Sadly, diplomacy has not yet yielded results and is sadly not likely to do so anytime soon.
INSKEEP: Lina Khatib of Chatham House, thanks for your insights.
KHATIB: Thank you. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
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