When I saw my friend Sam — my same-age friend Sam — at the grocery store the other day, neither one of us was wearing a mask.
Which was strange, because we have been serious maskers for most of the last year or so.
“Where’s your mask?” I asked.
“It’s over,” he said as he shrugged.
Sam was joking, of course. The COVID-19 pandemic is far from over. Sure, infections and deaths and hospitalizations are dropping in encouraging trends. But so is the rate of people getting vaccinated against the virus. And that’s not encouraging at all.
And a new variant named Delta poses a threat of formidable proportions. Which is why health professionals like Dr. Shankar Kurra, vice president of medical affairs for Monument Health in Rapid City, says getting the vaccine is so important.
He’s puzzled that more aren’t doing it.
“My biggest worry is that even though the U.S. vaccination rates are very good, about 55 percent, the problem is it’s not uniform,” Kurra says. “The true picture is seen at the county level, and every state has certain counties that are well below 20 percent.”
Examples in South Dakota include Harding County at 12 percent. Perkins County is at 20 percent, as is Corson, while Butte isn’t far ahead at 23 percent, according to Center for Disease Control and Prevention data.
So, the potential for greater spread could be there, although the sparse population could limit spread, too.
But anywhere vaccination rates are low, there could be a higher risk of a blow-up by the Delta variant, especially heading toward the fall.
“Ten states have high rates of vaccination, with the remaining 40 at high risk for the Delta variant, at least in some areas,” Kurra says.
And the more transmissible and more dangerous — meaning potential to cause hospitalization — Delta variant is spreading fast. It will soon be the dominant strain in the U.S., taking over from the Alpha variant.
“It is spreading 60 percent faster than the dominant Alpha variant in the U.S.,” Kurra says. “Think of it as areas where a wildfire doesn’t need but a single spark to take off and spread.”
People who could and should be vaccinated but aren’t could be the sparks of that wildfire, all across the nation.
“We could see the Delta surge in the fall, mainly in these far-flung remote areas, where access to health care is already difficult,” Kurra says. “So, it’s not a pretty picture if that were to come to be.”
With vaccination rates of 80 percent or more among citizens age 65 and older, the Delta variant is turning its insidious attention to younger age groups, where a smaller percentage is protected by the shots. Kurra expects that trend to continue, unless those younger people get wise and get vaccinations.
“We’re seeing the 29-45 age group come to the hospital sick, and that is a big worry,” Kurra said. “That is the part of the population that shouldn’t be getting hospitalized.”
To me, the hospitalization rates are among the most encouraging of statistics. Right now, South Dakota lists 15 people as being in the hospital because of COVID-19. When we were at our worst late last year, we had more than 600 hospitalized.
And of course, the gains we’ve made came at a price, with more than 2,000 South Dakotans dead because of the virus. The total continues to increase, very slowly. But it could pick up as vaccination rates continue to lag and the new variant hits as hard as expected.
Kurra says the United States did a great job of working with vaccine developers and producers and getting the shots out and available. South Dakota was a leader among states initially in vaccine percentages but has dropped off.
“We were the leader. We are now 25th,” he said.
South Dakota’s fully vaccinated percentage is now about 52 percent.
People need to get vaccinated. And if they’re not, they need to wear a mask. For folks like my friend Sam and me, the mask isn’t really necessary in most settings, Kurra said.
“If you’re fully vaccinated, the clear scientific evidence is you’re well protected,” he said. “It’s almost 100 percent effective against hospitalization, and in the 90 percent range of preventing actually contracting the disease through what we call breakthrough infections.”
I still wear a mask in some settings, indoors, and in close contact with others. I’d prefer not to be one of those breakthrough cases, just in case. And Kurra points out that a mask is still a good idea, even beyond its essential role in helping to prevent more COVID spread.
“COVID 19 demonstrated to society at large that the mask is a very good hygienic practice,” he said. “And during the flu season, it’s a great thing to adopt.”
The last flu season was basically a non-event, presumably in large part because of mask-wearing, hand sanitizing, social distancing and other wise prevention methods for COVID. And I haven’t had a cold in a year and a half.
So, to my buddy Sam, I have to say: See you soon in the produce section. I’ll probably be the guy by the carrots, wearing a mask.
