The U-S Census Bureau released its 2020 results this week. Some states have gained Congressional seats, others have lost seats...but what does it mean for South Dakota? Longtime Congressional staff member Chuck Parkinson is here to put it in perspective.
Jackie Hendry:
So before we get to those local level implications of the new census results, remind us, for those of us who it's been a bit since that civics class, remind us what it is that the census is meant to accomplish.
Chuck Parkinson:
Well, article one, section two of the US Constitution mandates that every 10 years, there'll be a decennial census to count the population of the United States. And as a direct result, your apportionment for Congress, the House of Representatives depends upon that, and states make their decisions for legislative districts upon that. But I think it's very important to remember that the census is much more than just about elections. It's about how almost a trillion dollars in federal government spending is spent every year in the United States. There are over 316 federal programs that depend upon the calculations that are made by the census account.
I think one of the things that's important, getting back to the elections issue, is that there's always an issue, is it an accurate count? And to give you an idea, seven states lost congressional seats this year and six states gained. New York lost one of its congressional seats. If it had had an 89 more people counted this year, or in the 2020 census, they would have maintained their seat and Minnesota would've lost the seat. But because they were 89 people short of the formula, Minnesota keeps their seat and New York loses one of those seats.
Jackie Hendry:
Wow. Just by 89 seats. I don't think I knew that.
Chuck Parkinson:
89 people. 89 people counted in 2020, yes.
Jackie Hendry:
So I had a friend asked me earlier kind of watching the news coverage of this, and a little bit of tut tutting and saying, "Wow, South Dakota, we're closing in on a million people. And yet we still just have that one representative in Congress." And they asked me, "What's it going to take for us to gain that seat?" And I didn't have an answer for them. Can you help me untie that one?
Chuck Parkinson:
Well, it is. South Dakota had two congressional seats up until with the 1980 census and we lost one of those seats in 1982. And we've been a single district state ever since then. There are seven other states that are single districts states. Montana, actually, which had been a single [inaudible 00:03:07], will gain one seat. So they will get two seats back. But to give you an idea, the population of South Dakota increased 8.9% under the census count from 2010 to 2020. We have 886,667 people. Well, the formula is such that the current size, if you divide 435 into 331 million, I think it is from that standpoint, it's far larger than 886,600 people. It comes out to be somewhere about 1.2, 1.3 million people per... Well, it's less than that per congressional seat. But for South Dakota to get a second seat, it would be my estimation that's out South Dakota's population would have to grow to be probably 1.2, 1.3 million people. And other states would have to continue to lose population.
And of course, that isn't unless Congress decided to increase the number of congressional seats from 435. And that hasn't happened for a long time. I don't even remember when the 435 was instated. But yeah, so it's a long way. It probably won't occur in my lifetime. But if South Dakota continues to grow at nine to 10% a year, that could have some impact down the long run. But one of the things that you look at also is the fact is the birth rate in the US dropped in the last 10 years. And we've had the smallest growth as a country since the 1930s. It's the second lowest growth rate since they started the census back in 1790, which was when the first census was conducted.
Jackie Hendry:
Wow. So no gains in seats for South Dakota, no losses in seats either, obviously, from this year.
Chuck Parkinson:
No. You're guaranteed one. [inaudible 00:05:15].
Jackie Hendry:
Wrap it up for us with this funding piece, because I think it's easy for folks to forget what that piece of the puzzle.
Chuck Parkinson:
Yes, very much so. I'll tell you the one thing that people do forget, like I mentioned earlier, that there's nearly a trillion dollars each year that goes to federal programs and there are 316, or more than that, federal programs that make determinations, is that what the formula would be. To give you an idea, in 2017, the last time that we have complete figures, South Dakota received almost $3.1 billion in formula money. And it runs all the areas. The big share that, of course, was Medicare. One of the things to pay attention to is Medicaid, where we got almost a billion dollars in 2020. And the Medicaid formula is such that smaller states get reimbursed depending on the counts of the people. To give you an idea, California and in New York received back only 50% of Medicare reimbursement that the state spends. In 2020, South Dakota got back 62.3%.
And the Georgetown University Institute on Public Policy indicates that their study showed that South Dakota would lose between 500 and $1,500 for every individual not counted. That's not just for Medicaid. That's for all formula programs that come to the state. And it includes money that goes to... One of the big decisions is, are we an urban or are we rural? And the definition of urban and rural has a lot of change on how the formulas work. USDA does formula funding. The department of education does formula funding. And each one of those federal payouts is based basically on our population. And so as a result, everybody needs to be counted, which is very, very important. And I think that's one of the other things a lot of people don't understand about how important the census count is and what a great fiscal impact it has.
And another thing to remember that the census is just not a 10 year. Every 10 years, they get together and decide to count people. Every year, they do the American community survey, which includes about 130 different surveys that take all kinds of things into account, besides even counting people, but how different sectors work. And state and local governments depend upon that. Universities that do research depend upon that. And it even breaks down... I would dare say at SDSU, the extension service takes a look at what are the farming practices, what are the ranching practices? Because they get those kinds of numbers as a result of the direct result of the agricultural survey that the census bureau does every few years.