This interview originally aired on "In the Moment" on SDPB Radio.
Jury deliberations have begun in former President Donald Trump's New York City trial. He's facing charges for allegedly falsifying business records regarding hush-money payments to adult film star Stormy Daniels.
Our Dakota Political Junkies take a look at how the trial may impact November's election.
Plus, we look at what could be next for Gov. Kristi Noem after the fallout over her book.
David Wiltse, Ph.D., and Lisa Hager, Ph.D., are associate professors of political science at South Dakota State University.
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Lori Walsh:
Jury deliberations have begun in former president, Donald Trump's New York City trial. He's on trial for allegedly falsifying business records regarding hush money payments to adult film star Stormy Daniels.
Now, today's Dakota Political Junkies conversation will start right there because it is, again, unprecedented.
David Wiltse, Lisa Hager, both associate professors of political science at SDSU, and they're joining us from SDPB's Jeanine Basinger Studio at SDSU in Brookings.
Dr. Wiltse, welcome back.
David Wiltse:
Good to be here.
Lori Walsh:
Dr. Hager, welcome as well.
Lisa Hager:
Good afternoon.
Lori Walsh:
Dave, let's start with you. Thirty-four felony counts. It could take some time, it could not. We have no idea, but we wait.
And the significance of the waiting is also that we're something like six months away from a presidential election. What do you think is worth saying today about this trial as we wait?
David Wiltse:
Well, in the end, we're trying to suss out what the effect is going to be on the election? And unfortunately, for the most part, I just got to go back to my refrain of partisanship and negative partisanship and the like that you hear me talk about all the time here.
And this really, it is unprecedented that we have a former president on trial. It's also unprecedented that this probably isn't going to move the needle too much in the election itself. We are at a point in this country where we are so polarized, where we have such negative opinions about our political adversaries, that in the end, our partisanship is going to be the lens that we look at this thing with.
For Democrats, they're just presuming he's guilty.
For Republicans, they'll justify their vote in some way, a rigged process, corrupt prosecutors, you name it.
I really don't think this is going to have too much of an effect on the outcome of the election. And that's a pretty sad commentary.
Lori Walsh:
Well, for listeners, this is not a legal analysis of the merits of the case. Right?
David Wiltse:
No.
Lori Walsh:
That's for a different segment. This is a political science conversation about the impact of this on an election.
David Wiltse:
Right.
Lori Walsh:
And that's why you're saying what you just said. But I'm also curious then how the campaigns are using that polarization, which they have helped create, to the maximum benefit.
It seems fairly self-explanatory that President Biden would say, "Yes, this is corrupt. His felonies, this has never happened before."
How does the Trump campaign use this as a way to get voters to turn out in November?
David Wiltse:
Well, it's a way to activate their base by throwing red meat of the regular talk that we hear coming from the Trump campaign about how this is a rigged judicial system. He is being treated systematically different than any other criminal defendant. He's just speaking to his base and that is the kind of thing that can really drive people to the polls.
Lori Walsh:
Lisa, what would you add to this that we probably need to discuss? What's the next thread to pull on here?
Lisa Hager:
I think the one thing that is noteworthy is for the most part, the Biden campaign wasn't really saying too much about this until fairly recently where they had the event outside the courthouse with Robert De Niro.
And so they're then engaging with this particular trial, and that is good in terms of the things that Dave was talking about where they're trying to use this to show that there is a problem with Trump and that basically voters should be paying attention to that. And that's also their attempt to bring back what happened on January 6th.
But at the same time, this just continues to feed into the Trump claim that this is all politically motivated. Like "Look, the Biden campaign is coming out to engage with something that's happening in the judicial process."
So again, I think the big thing is it just continues to be this political issue, more so than really focusing on the legal issues at hand.
Lori Walsh:
Yeah, I'm not sure anybody wins here, at the end of the day. It certainly doesn't feel like the American people are winning on this one.
Lisa Hager:
No, I think most people already, for the most part, have their minds made up and this is just reinforcing their opinion.
Lori Walsh:
Yeah. I want to pivot quickly, Lisa, to Governor Kristi Noem, obviously coming off of her well-documented book tour, but now going to the southern border and then coming back and is banished from every tribal community in the state of South Dakota. Now she's saying we want to have this tribal law enforcement conference.
You've written extensively about women's paths to power, and I just am really curious to know as you watch this, again, from a political science perspective, how does this next move that she has made play into her ambitions politically?
Lisa Hager:
I think what we're continuing to see is for the most part, she's relatively resilient despite fairly often being embroiled in some sort of scandal at hand.
So the book is just one of many things that has recently popped up, and we often see women leaders being criticized in this particular way.
If we're looking in the international context, there are lots of instances where they're facing coup attempts or other ways to oust them from power. That's not as common when you are looking at women who are in Western developed nations like Kristi Noem who've taken the political career path or really climbed that political ladder, but we still see her being criticized quite often.
If we even are thinking about the issue with Cricket and her shooting the dog, at face value, we might not necessarily think that's overtly gendered, but at the same time, we're seeing her being criticized for shooting a dog where that isn't that typical caring sort of behavior that we expect from women stereotypically.
So I think that did end up playing into it, even though that wasn't necessarily discussed too much.
I think at this point, she's probably needing to focus on what her next step is. Personally, I don't necessarily see her getting chosen to be the vice presidential running mate with Trump. That could be because of some of this issue with Cricket in the book.
But more than that, I just don't see her adding much to the ticket just because voters who would vote for her or would be apt to vote for Trump because of her would probably already vote for Trump anyway.
So I think he needs to bring someone to the table who can bring him additional voters.
Lori Walsh:
Dave Wiltse, her, "Banish the cartels," isn't quite the phrase that, "Build the wall," was, but you can see her trying to create this easy to remember, easy to punch against slogan that defines where she's at right now.
What are you seeing happening for her here politically?
David Wiltse:
Well, keep in mind that she's probably not going to face an electorate here for her next step. In many ways, people are thinking about this as another political contest that she's going to have to enter, getting votes and that sort of thing.
She really has an audience of one. Most of her ambitions right now seem to be centered on some role in the Trump administration if he gets elected.
And secondarily, obviously jobs in the media as a commentator on FOX, OAN or what have you. So the normal incentives, the political incentives are a bit different here. So she's trying to get in good graces with Donald Trump. And Trump operates on basically id and impulse, and these are the sorts of things that he's responsive to. And she is using the same kind of rhetoric, trying to show a character that Trump will appreciate. And in the end, it really does come down to his decision.
And when it comes to vice presidential picks, the jury's out in the political science on how important a vice presidential nominee is for a ticket. And throw in the fact that Donald Trump does not think like a normal politician, does not think about, "Well, could I pick up this state or that other state?"
He chose Mike Pence because he won Indiana in the primary, and Pence was one of the first guys to say, "I endorse you." That's not a typical nomination.
I don't expect him to do a typical nomination this time around either.
Lori Walsh:
Yeah. We only have two minutes left, but does polarization bring people to the polls? Because everyone I talk to is so tired and it's six months away and they're like, "I'm so tired. I want two different candidates. Can we start from scratch?"
Does that show up in the polling or is it the opposite, Dave, where it's just like this polarization works and that's why they're doing it, because it's going to bring that base out of their houses and then people who are just exhausted are going to stay home and those are your moderates? What do we know and what do we not know about that?
David Wiltse:
It does work to an extent. What really matters in the end about what drives people to the polls is how much they care about the outcome of the election, and if they feel that their participation is necessary.
So in 2020, when Biden was running and Democrats were very unified in this, "We have to get rid of Donald Trump," it did drive up key Democratic constituencies that put them over the top in a few states, and that's just an unfortunate fact of polarization is that it can be an effective motivator.
Lori Walsh:
Yeah. 30 seconds, Lisa, what would you add to that?
Lisa Hager:
I think that there is a little bit of fatigue, like you were mentioning, with respect to this particular election. But I do think, piggybacking off what Dave said, the two candidates are ones where people have made an opinion and I think they know that in order to ensure that their candidate of choice is sitting in the White House, they do need to turn out.
So I would agree that this is going to be an effective tactic to get folks to the polls.
Lori Walsh:
All right. David Wiltse and Lisa Hager, our Dakota Political Junkies for the day. They are both associate professors of political science at South Dakota State University.
Dr. Wiltse, thank you so much for being here.
David Wiltse:
Thank you.
Lori Walsh:
Dr. Hager, thank you as well.
Lisa Hager:
Good to be here.
