MARY LOUISE KELLY, HOST:
We're going to turn to Vice President Harris, who is hours away from picking her running mate. Who will it be? That is the question right now. Also, whoever it is, what will their impact be on the race? Well, here with the answers, such as we have them so far, NPR senior political editor and correspondent Domenico Montanaro. Hey, Domenico.
DOMENICO MONTANARO, BYLINE: Hey there.
KELLY: Give us the short list. Who is this coming down to for Harris?
MONTANARO: Well, you know, this is really about Mark Kelly, the senator from Arizona, Josh Shapiro, the governor of Pennsylvania, and Tim Walz, the governor of Minnesota. And anytime a presidential candidate picks a running mate, they're thinking about balance. You know, that's the most important thing, whether it's ideological or geographical. Sometimes it can be both.
Just look at, you know, who she's considering. I mean, thinking about someone like Walz, he's liked by progressives, maybe could appeal to those middle-of-the-road voters in the upper Midwest with his messaging. He's the person, by the way, who is given credit for starting this messaging against Trump and MAGA as, quote-unquote, "weird." Senator Kelly from Arizona - you know, he's from a key swing state. He's also seen as more moderate and could help with immigration messaging. And, of course, there's Josh Shapiro in Pennsylvania. He's seen as a moderate and maybe in the most important presidential state, and he has a 60% approval rating there, so that's pretty good.
KELLY: It's pretty darn good. OK, whoever it is, this ticket is, of course, going to face a ton of scrutiny really quickly. There is no on-ramp here. How is Harris framing her candidacy? How are Republicans framing it?
MONTANARO: Yeah, I mean, a lot of people have been saying that Harris, right now, is in something of a honeymoon phase. I'd say that's true to an extent, but it's more like if you want to think about the liquid Jello phase (laughter).
KELLY: OK.
MONTANARO: Views of her just haven't solidified yet. And the fight is on to really define her. Here are parts of two ads with millions of dollars behind them that have been running on repeat in the most hotly contested states. The first is from MAGA Inc., a super PAC supporting Donald Trump. The other is from Harris' campaign. And you can hear in these, they both focus on her time as prosecutor in California.
(SOUNDBITE OF ARCHIVED RECORDING)
UNIDENTIFIED PERSON #1: Before she was the most liberal U.S. senator, Kamala Harris was the liberal San Francisco prosecutor, the most progressive in all of California. She led an MS-13...
(SOUNDBITE OF POLITICAL AD, "FEARLESS")
UNIDENTIFIED PERSON #2: The one thing Kamala Harris has always been - fearless. As a prosecutor, she put murderers and abusers behind bars. As California...
MONTANARO: So very different ways that they're trying to frame Harris' record here. And the Trump campaign is spending a lot of time and money criticizing her on immigration as well. So far, though, it looks like Harris' messaging is winning out because her image has seemed to improve since she's gotten in.
KELLY: OK, let's set aside the framing and just talk numbers 'cause you're a numbers guy. You have a new analysis out today about the electoral map, and I want to ask you, how has it changed since Harris jumped in?
MONTANARO: Well, overall, this is a really, really close race right now, and we're sort of back to where we were before President Biden's dismal debate performance at the end of June. What we're seeing is that, in the blue wall states - Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin - they're now true toss-ups. Trump had a small lead there before Harris got in. Now that's gone.
In the other four states we're watching closely - North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona and Nevada - it's within the margin of error in all of them now, which is a big change. Trump had been building a lead there in the Sun Belt states by five to six points or so, but now that's snapped back. That's largely because of Harris' appeal with younger and non-white voters in these very diverse states. Trump has the slightest edge in them right now because of his consistent leads, but the Harris campaign feels optimistic that her momentum can continue there and that maybe she can overcome some of the deficits with some of their organizing advantages.
KELLY: So in the minute we have left, just sketch out what the roadmap looks like - like, the path to the presidency for each candidate. Start with Harris.
MONTANARO: Yeah. The easiest road for Harris is through the blue wall. If she holds Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan and that one congressional district in the Omaha, Neb., area, that would get her to exactly 270 electoral votes without needing any of the Sun Belt states.
For Trump, though, he really needs to win all of the Sun Belt states he's favored in, and he needs to pick up one of those blue wall states because just winning the Sun Belt would get him to 268, which is just short of the 270 that's needed to win. His campaign's focus has been on Pennsylvania. Groups supporting Trump have spent $50 million there of the more than 85 million that they've spent on ads. The second most - Georgia. And this election very well may come down to those two states, Georgia and Pennsylvania. If Trump wins both of them, he gets to 270 without needing any of the other states that we've been talking about.
KELLY: That is NPR's Domenico Montanaro. Thanks, Domenico.
MONTANARO: You're welcome. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
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