STEVE INSKEEP, HOST:
A presidential debate comes tonight, the first since President Biden met former President Trump in June.
A MARTÍNEZ, HOST:
Now, one candidate has changed, and Vice President Harris meets former President Trump for their first and only scheduled meeting. And NPR-PBS News-Marist poll shows a statistical dead heat, and close to one-third of those responding say, tonight's debate will help them decide on their vote.
INSKEEP: NPR's Franco Ordoñez and Scott Horsley will be watching and are here to help us sort through the stakes. Gentlemen, good morning.
FRANCO ORDOÑEZ, BYLINE: Good morning.
SCOTT HORSLEY, BYLINE: Good morning, Steve.
INSKEEP: I'm thinking about that finding that 30% or so of those responding say the debate will help them decide on their vote. I guess there aren't nearly so many undecided voters, but there are people who are still assessing Kamala Harris, the newer candidate here. What does she bring to the debate that Joe Biden couldn't in that disastrous debate in June?
ORDOÑEZ: You know, Steve, I mean, frankly, I mean, she's younger. She has more energy, and she's less likely to struggle when Trump attacks her. And as a former prosecutor, she can also hold Trump to account in a way that Biden couldn't and didn't. I mean, Biden didn't call out Trump's inability to answer questions. He didn't call out his lies, any missteps. Also, you know, let's just point out that Harris is looking to keep this momentum going after her really big explosion onto the scene. I mean, she's still seeking to define herself in the eyes of voters, you know, trying to show that she can be the one to chart a new course for the country. And she needs to show that she can be presidential, that a woman can be president. As for Trump, I'll just point out that he wants to end what they see as kind of this extended honeymoon. He wants to paint her as just the same as Biden and tie her to his most controversial policies while presenting himself as a change candidate.
INSKEEP: And Scott Horsley, I guess we should just note that although Harris has improved in polling compared to Joe Biden, it's still very, very, very close, and voters' top concern is the economy for which they tend to blame the incumbent administration. How do you expect the candidates to lean on that?
HORSLEY: You know, well, based on what we've heard elsewhere on the campaign trail, I imagine Trump will try to paint Harris as responsible for a lot of the inflation that people are unhappy about. I imagine Harris will try to paint Trump as somebody who cuts taxes for the rich, but doesn't do much for the middle class. And both candidates might talk about tariffs. Sweeping tariffs are a centerpiece of Trump's economic platform. Talking in New York last week, they seem to be his solution to just about every problem. Harris might remind people that Trump's tariffs in the first term invited a lot of retaliation from our trading partners and wound up hurting U.S. farmers and other exporters.
INSKEEP: In addition to talking routinely about tariffs, Trump talks about domestic energy, traditional energy - drill, baby, drill, that sort of thing.
HORSLEY: Yeah, we may hear more from him on that tonight. Harris could come back and say, look, the United States is already producing a record amount of oil and natural gas while also boosting its production of clean energy, liquid and solar.
INSKEEP: The U.S. is the world's No. 1 oil producer right now. Now, more broadly, people tell pollsters they're feeling a little more confident or less bad about the economy than they were a few months ago. What's the overall economic report card?
HORSLEY: You know, it is still chugging along. Employers are not adding jobs as fast as they had been, but the unemployment rate is still quite low - 4.2%. Inflation's cooled off considerably, although prices are still higher than most people would like. Gasoline prices are a bright spot - they're down about 50 cents a gallon from a year ago. But grocery bills are still pretty high, and we know that's a source of frustration for a lot of people.
MARTÍNEZ: Yeah.
HORSLEY: Americans are still spending money, though, and as long as that's the case, the economy is going to continue to bob along. What people aren't doing is saving a lot of money. The savings rate dropped to just 2.9% this summer.
MARTÍNEZ: Wow.
HORSLEY: A lot of the extra savings that had piled up during the pandemic are now gone, and some people are relying on credit cards to pay their bills, and at today's high interest rates, that's a very costly form of debt.
INSKEEP: Aren't interest rates about to start falling, we think?
HORSLEY: Yeah, we're pretty sure the federal reserve is going to start cutting interest rates next week when policymakers meet. And mortgage rates have already come down a little bit.
INSKEEP: OK. And what does that add up to, then, when you look at the big picture economic message from each side?
HORSLEY: Well, I think Donald Trump is going to paint a dark picture of the U.S. economy, just as he does with immigration and foreign policy, and he'll present himself as the would-be rescuer. There's a sizable constituency that buys into that narrative. Even back in 2020, a lot of voters gave Trump an edge on the economy, even though unemployment had soared to almost 15% when the pandemic hit. And remember, Trump was the first president since Herbert Hoover to leave office with fewer jobs than when he came in. Harris' challenge will be to remind people about that checkered history and defend the economic record of the Biden administration, while also acknowledging people are unhappy about today's high prices.
INSKEEP: OK, thanks very much, Scott Horsley. Franco Ordoñez is still with us. And I'm thinking about the personalities on stage here, Franco. Trump - when the candidates changed, when his opponent changed, he was - he publicly said, they're telling me to speak differently and be more polite. I'm not going to do it. So to what extent, if at all, would he adjust his tone because he is facing a woman?
ORDOÑEZ: Yeah, I mean, the campaign insists that he's not going to adjust his tone essentially because she's a woman. But you're absolutely right. I mean, he boasts himself kind of as this great negotiator, but he has really struggled with women, especially women in power who he sees as competition. I mean, you can think of Hillary Clinton. You can think of Nancy Pelosi. He's mean to everyone, of course, but he is different with women. I mean, he criticizes their appearance. He belittles their intelligence. So that's absolutely something I'll be watching for, whether Trump tones down his rhetoric. Another thing I'll just add that I'll be watching for is whether age creeps up in this debate. You know, Biden was considered the old candidate in the last debate, but Trump is only a few years younger, and his rambling speeches have been getting a lot more attention recently now that Biden is out. So I'll be watching for that as well to look to see if you have more tangents and whether that leads to questions about his age and fitness for the job.
INSKEEP: Hasn't Trump also been going on his social media platform and elsewhere, by the way, and repeating promises to violate the Constitution, repeating promises to imprison people also?
ORDOÑEZ: Yeah, I mean, he's saying he'll prosecute those he says are going to steal the election from him. I mean, he's not giving any evidence of how, but these are kind of tactics that we've seen before where he kind of lays the groundwork to claim large-scale voter fraud. This time it is a little bit different, though, with the threat of prison time for folks like the election workers and political operatives and donors to his opponent. I mean, it's really reminiscent of things he has said, you know, before when he posted about terminating parts of the Constitution. As for the debate, I anticipate it's going to come up because these are intimidating threats that are really not have no basis in fact.
INSKEEP: Okay, NPRs, Franco Ordoñez and Scott Horsley. Thanks to you both.
ORDOÑEZ: Thank you.
HORSLEY: Good to be with you. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
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