MICHEL MARTIN, HOST:
Tensions between India and Pakistan often run hot and cold, and now they're running hot after a militant attack killed 26 people in Indian-controlled Kashmir.
LEILA FADEL, HOST:
The militants fled and a manhunt is ongoing. Since then, armies from the two countries are exchanging sporadic gunfire at the border almost every day.
MARTIN: To explain what's going on, we've called NPR's Diaa Hadid. She covers Pakistan and India from her base in Mumbai. Hello, Diaa. Thanks for joining us once again.
DIAA HADID, BYLINE: Thank you, Michel.
MARTIN: So let's start here. What happened that led to this?
HADID: Well, last week, gunmen opened fire on tourists in a meadow that's in Indian-controlled Kashmir. It's a territory claimed by Pakistan and India, and both countries control parts of it. But this attack was pretty harsh. Eyewitnesses reported that some gunmen asked their victims if they were Muslim and if they weren't, they shot them. So most of the killed were Hindu men, and the attack felt visceral in this Hindu-majority nation. Praveen Donthi is from the international Crisis Group, and he says that's put pressure on India to respond.
PRAVEEN DONTHI: The civilians, you know, 26 of them, they belong to all parts of the country, and it's the first time such a big attack has been mounted on civilians. So there is a lot of anger among the Indian public. They've been baying for blood right now.
MARTIN: So there is pressure on India to respond with retaliatory strikes on Pakistan, but why is India blaming Pakistan for this attack?
HADID: Yeah, they're blaming Pakistan because the group that claim responsibility is seen as a proxy for the Pakistani army. Now, Pakistan denies any connection and has called for a neutral investigation, but that hasn't mollified India. It quickly announced it was withdrawing diplomats. It shuttered down a border crossing, and it suspended a water-sharing agreement that Pakistan sees as existential to its survival. So Pakistan's announced similar measures and it's banned trade with India.
MARTIN: Has there been violence since the initial shootings?
HADID: Yeah, Michel, like you mentioned earlier, there's been near-daily exchanges of gunfire. Residents are fleeing the area on both sides. Yesterday, Pakistan said it shot down two Indian drones, and overnight it canceled commercial flights to Himalayan areas that are close to Kashmir. So analysts say it's now a waiting game, like Milan Vaishnav. He's with the Carnegie Endowment.
MILAN VAISHNAV: There is enormous pressure on Prime Minister Modi to respond with some kind of military maneuver. The nature of this attack crossed, I think, a threshold of brazenness that makes it politically difficult for Modi not to respond militarily.
HADID: The problem is, though, it could spin out of control. Both these countries have nuclear weapons.
MARTIN: Now, the U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio has been calling on both sides to de-escalate. Is there any chance or been any sign of that happening?
HADID: Yeah, there could be, but analysts say this is part of the problem in South Asia. There's a pattern of India and Pakistan escalating and then waiting for outsiders to de-escalate the crisis. One Pakistani columnist, Ara Fannor (ph) recently wrote about this.
ARA FANNOR: India and Pakistan don't just walk into a war by accident. There is this entire expectation that somebody is going to talk us off the ledge. The talking off the ledge is the responsibility of the international community.
HADID: So now we're waiting to see if Rubio can talk Pakistan and India off the ledge.
MARTIN: That is NPR's Diaa Hadid in Mumbai. Diaa, thank you.
HADID: You're welcome, Michel. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
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