SCOTT SIMON, HOST:
A right-wing populist president who is accused of conspiring to overturn an election is on trial in Brazil. Jair Bolsonaro is charged with a sprawling conspiracy to overturn his electoral defeat. His supporters say it is politically motivated.
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PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP: This is really a political execution that they're trying to do with Bolsonaro. I think that's terrible.
SIMON: President Trump has pressured Brazil to drop the case, and Bolsonaro could face up to 43 years in prison if convicted. We're joined now from Sao Paulo by Gustavo Ribeiro, who was co-founder of the English-language news site The Brazilian Report. Mr. Ribeiro, thanks so much for being with us.
GUSTAVO RIBEIRO: It's a pleasure joining you.
SIMON: What are the charges against the former president?
RIBEIRO: So Bolsonaro is accused of heading this vast conspiracy to overthrow Brazilian democracy, a conspiracy that started in 2021 but that intensified after he lost the election in 2022. And that culminated with the invasion of government buildings in our capital, Brasilia, in January 8, 2023, just one week into the new government's current term. This invasion was pretty similar to the Capitol riots that you guys had in the U.S., but I would dare to say that it was actually worse. They not only invaded Congress but also the Supreme Court building, the presidential palace. And Bolsonaro now faces charges that go from armed conspiracy, attempt to overthrow the rule of law but also destroying public property because his supporters, when they invaded these buildings, they ransacked them. They trashed everything in their path. And Brasilia, our capital, is a UNESCO heritage site, so that adds to the penalties that, like you said, could reach up to 43 years in prison.
SIMON: Bolsonaro denies the charges. As you know, people see parallels with what happened in the United States, but Brazil has a very different history, doesn't it?
RIBEIRO: Yes. This is not necessarily new to see politicians and military officials involved in coup plotting. We have actually had seen at least a dozen coup attempts or successful coups. What sets this case apart is that every time these groups tried to overthrow democracy, they were either successful or escaped any accountability. And because of our history of letting coup plotters off the hook, we are actually inciting them to do it again and again and again. And what we see now is the Supreme Court trying to draw a red line and say, no more. So now they're putting a stop to it.
SIMON: Would the case be over after a verdict from the Supreme Court?
RIBEIRO: No, because Brazil is intensely polarized. Bolsonaro says that this is a political trial; the Supreme Court is out to get him. And his supporters in Congress are trying to push for amnesty to him and to his supporters. Now, it is uncertain how serious they are about it because Bolsonaro being extremely unpredictable and volatile, he serves conservatives more as a martyr rather than a boss.
What we see many in the conservative caucus doing in Congress is pushing for an amnesty bill that is so blatantly unconstitutional that the Supreme Court will necessarily have to strike it down. And then they can have a political win by saying to Bolsonaro supporters, we tried our best, but also pointing the finger at the Supreme Court and say, ah-ha, this is overreach; this is the Supreme Court trying to act politically.
SIMON: President Trump has called the case a witch hunt and has slapped 50% tariffs on Brazil. What's the effect been there?
RIBEIRO: Well, we just had the most recent trade data. Exports to the U.S. actually decreased by 18% in August against August 2024. We are seeing several industries being extremely scared that these tariffs could deliver them a death blow. Several sectors depend on the U.S. market. The Brazilian economy is very much linked to the U.S. economy because the U.S. is Brazil's main buyer of manufactured goods, and also, we rely on American industrial inputs. So that also makes retaliation a very unappealing option for Brazil.
SIMON: Can they withstand the economic pressure?
RIBEIRO: That's a billion-dollar question. The future of this government that will try reelection next year depends on that because if the economy is a wreck next year, probably Lula will face an uphill battle to reelection.
SIMON: The president of Brazil.
RIBEIRO: Yes. Now, what the Brazilian government is trying to do is expand trade deals with other countries. We're seeking deals with Mexico. We're trying to get over the hump a deal with the European Union. However, these are a long-term strategy to a short-term problem.
SIMON: Gustavo Ribeiro who is with Brazilian Report. Thank you so much for joining us.
RIBEIRO: Always a pleasure. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
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