Economists say the Trump tariff policy is having real impacts on jobs and manufacturers, but also consumers at the grocery store.
As a federal shutdown impacts SNAP users and Christmas shopping right around the corner, that could mean even less money to businesses already facing pressure from tariffs.
When President Donald Trump first took office for his second term, Creighton University economist Ernie Goss said the response of other nations would tell the tale of tariff policy.
Indeed, while tariffs brought some nations to the negation table, others like China dug in. Goss said overall, the tariff battle has been a losing one for shoppers and businesses alike. However, the biggest ship caught in this whirlpool, according to Goss, is the Federal Reserve.
“The Federal Reserve is in a position like a man with a hand in the fireplace and a hand in the refrigerator. On balance, he’s okay, but it’s not on balance," Goss said. "The hand in the refrigerator, that’s manufacturing, and on the flip side in the fireplace, that’s inflation. Right now, (the Federal Reserve) is caught between the two, and unfortunately that’s what we’re going to be dealing with. At this point in time, the bond market is telling us the economy is slowing down.”
Goss compiles a monthly report of manufacturers in a nine-state region including the Dakotas.
“This is the seventh straight month we’ve recorded job losses," Goss said. "Probably a little over one percent year-over-year, so not a real concern but it is an issue going forward.”
While South Dakota may be an agriculture-first economy, its products are usually raw goods that must be shipped and manufactured further up the supply chain, either in factories across the Midwest or in other nations.
“I’m going to be looking at what’s going on in terms of exporting, for example, soybean to China," Goss said. "I mean, eight million bushels missing there for this year from the export to China. That shows up across the board — in manufacturing as well.”
Importantly, Goss said the nation is not currently in a recession despite the challenging economic outlook.
