The National Weather Service said cooler temperatures in the Pacific Ocean indicate this winter could be colder than average.
And while that’s news most South Dakotans probably don’t want to hear, now’s the time to plan for it.
While South Dakota is hundreds of miles away from the Pacific Ocean, temperatures there have a big impact here at home.
Kelly Serr is the Warning Coordination Meteorologist with the NWS in Aberdeen. She explained La Nina, a large-scale weather pattern that typically indicates cooler temperatures for the winter.
“Eventually it can translate into where kind of the jet stream pattern tends to fall in the winter. So La Nina is cooler than average Pacific Ocean temperatures," Serr said. "And for us in the northern plains of the United States, it typically we more, more often see a cold jet stream that dips out of Canada more frequently, giving us frequent surges of cold air.”
She explained the timeframe of the current La Nina happening.
“So, La Nina is occurring that's actually being observed in the Pacific Ocean right now, and we expect it to continue through about February timeframe. However, it is expected to be brief and weak, and so it'll transition out of that La Nina into something more neutral in the January through March time frame," Serr said. "So that influence, it's just a large-scale weather pattern that we expect to see more often in the winter. And that is what we are basing the odds of temperatures being cooler than average for this winter, December, January, February forecast.”
Serr adds that doesn’t necessarily mean they can predict details on snow or blizzards. Details are hard to predict more than a week out on specific conditions. However, “Right now the trends, out in the long-range, that three-month December, January, February, are for a wetter than average winter," Serr said. "So more precip[itation] than average during the winter months. It’s tipped, the scales are tipped, in that direction.”
She said that means now is the time to prepare for winter plans and travel: gathering extra supplies, things to stay warm and checking car tires and other services.
