Officials are expecting lower-than-normal runoff in the upper Missouri River basin in 2026.

The upper basin refers to the Missouri River north of Sioux City, which includes four hydroelectric dams in South Dakota.

The latest Army Corps of Engineers forecast projects runoff this year at about 91 percent of average. That projection is based off soil moisture conditions, snowpack and the long-term precipitation outlook.

January runoff was higher than normal, but that was due to above-average temperatures causing early snowmelt.

The Corps is expecting below-normal releases at Gavins Point Dam the next few weeks to conserve water in the system.

“While the target winter release from Gavins Point Dam is 12,000 cfs, releases were increased to 14,000 cfs in mid-January to mitigate some of the effects of the much colder temperatures across the lower basin,” said John Remus, chief of the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers’ Missouri River Basin Water Management Division. “Releases will be held steady until ice effects stabilize downstream of Gavins, at which time releases will be reduced to the winter release of 12,000 cfs. Flows will continue to be adjusted to the extent practical based on cold weather conditions.”