One of the year’s top stories for farm country - tariffs - continues to challenge the state. With an aid package brewing in Washington, a Midwest economist foresees a complicated beginning to the new year.
The package, announced by President Donald Trump Monday, features $11 billion targeted at crop growers via one-time payments for the Farmer Bridge Assistance program. The remaining billion will go to other crop farmers whose products fall outside that program’s reach.
Creighton University economist Ernie Goss said this highlights the complicated legacy of the Trump Administration's trade policy.
“That’ll help us tide the area over, but again it’s not going to be enough to continue for 2026," Goss said. "We need to see trade resumed. We need to see those sales abroad and exports. Not retaliation. I think this support – and I wouldn’t call it welfare or a bailout – it’s providing support for political decisions made by the political class.”
Goss compiles a monthly index of the midwestern economy, including the Dakotas. He said this subsidy represents nearly one-tenth of national farm income and highlights how policy-induced challenges ripple far beyond crop fields.
“For example, John Deere, that produces implements for agriculture," Goss said. "It includes the retailor in the city selling agricultural equipment, which has not been good. Farmers have pulled back considerably on the purchase of agricultural equipment. So, it’s spilling over into the broader economy.”
After a challenging 2025, Goss said he sees a wrongheadedness to the ongoing trade war.
“Sometimes businesspeople, and the President is a businessperson, see a winner and a loser. Well, economists see trade as a winner-winner," Goss said. "Unfortunately, I see this idea that somehow, we can grow our own bananas. Do we really want to try and raise our own bananas? All our own avocadoes? No. We raise soybean, we raise corn, we raise wheat, we raise beef, and we trade for those items. That’s a good deal for all sides.”
Beyond challenges in farm country, Goss said challenges in the housing market will be critical for both homebuyers and economy watchers in 2026.
