“Without the Bernie Sanders ad, she wouldn’t be governor today.”
That statement came from one of two Republican insiders I was talking with recently about Gov. Kristi Noem.
The other asked me a question:
“If the election were held today, would Kristi Noem win?”
Let’s take the question first: I said I didn’t know. Both Republicans shook their heads, and said they did know. “No chance,” one of them said, as the other one nodded.
The election in question was the 2018 gubernatorial election between Noem and Democratic state Sen. Billie Sutton. Noem won, but it was way too close for comfort among Republicans grown accustomed to walk-away wins in the tightest race for governor since George Mickelson beat Lars Herseth in 1986.
But back to the “Bernie” ad, which was paid for by the South Dakota Republican Party and ran effectively late in the 2018 campaign. It alleged that Sutton was soft on border security and included a grainy video clip from the 2016 Democratic presidential primary of Billie saying “I like the policies of Bernie, but I will be voting for Hillary.”
No big deal? Wrong. Big deal. Admitting that he thought Democratic Socialist Bernie Sanders might have some good policies hurt Sutton among swing voters and likely with some independents.
There were a lot of things that went into Noem’s turnaround in the final weeks of the 2018 campaign, which she was losing to Sutton according to polling by both campaigns.
"It was over,” one of the two Republican insiders said.
But in the end, the South Dakota Republican Party was not about to let its nominee down. It brought in money and names — including local notables John Thune and Mike Rounds, and national pols Mike Pence and Donald Trump — to save Noem’s campaign and the Republican streak of straight wins in the race for governor going back to 1978.
But word from pollsters in the Noem-Sutton race was that the “I like Bernie” ad was key. And maybe it was.
What’s all that have to do with the today? Plenty, according to the two well-informed insiders I spoke with, and others.
After a year in office as South Dakota’s first woman governor, Noem continues to struggle to win or keep the hearts of an unsettling — if it isn’t to her, it should be — number of important GOP voters and donors.
That can be seen in the latest Morning Consult poll, a survey of voters about their feelings toward key elected officials across the nation. Bob Mercer points to the poll result on his highly informative KELO Bob MercerTwitter page. In the latest poll, Thune has a 52 percent approval and 35 percent disapproval in the state. Rounds is at 50-35. Noem is slightly upside down at 43 approval and 45 disapproval.
Noem has hurt herself with her handling of some high-profile issues. They include a controversial anti-meth campaign, a tussle with legislators over a seemingly reasonable industrial-hemp bill and a head-scratcher of an outdated predator-bounty program than she seems insistent on continuing. There was also the unwise salary increase to a staffer in her office who happens to be her daughter and a shaky ability to build and maintain an administrative team and clearly define and present a vision-based agenda.
Which brings up another governor — Dennis Daugaard, who didn’t struggle much with such things — and another Morning Consult poll from a few years back. It was reported by former Argus Leader reporter Dana Ferguson under the headline: “South Dakotans like their governor.”
“Like” might have been an understatement, at least at the time, which was September 2016. In that Morning Consult poll, Dennis Daugaard led governors across the nation with 74 percent of those interviewed approving of the job he was doing, and just 15 percent disapproving.
Those are both snapshots in time and shouldn’t be considered determinative. But Daugaard was a popular governor throughout most of his eight years in office. And Noem has a ways to go in that regard. She also has almost three years to upgrade her favorability before the general election, and a bit less time — about 2 1/2 years —to get ready for a probable primary opponent, or two.
Given where she stands now, Noem’s competitive-but-successful 2018 GOP primary campaign against former AG Marty Jackley might be difficult to repeat, should Jackley take another run. And that squeaker win over Sutton in the general election? Well, let’s just say that any Democratic donor has reason to stay engaged.
Of course, Noem is still the steely tough campaigner who has never lost a race and has beaten some really tough opponents. She’s not afraid of a fight. And she’s still got that “I like Bernie” ad in the files, in case she needs it.
What she doesn’t have right now is the full force and affection of the GOP machine in South Dakota behind her. And it’ll take some time, and some work, to get it.