Is it worth paying non-Hall of Fame caliber quarterbacks elite tier money in the National Football League today? Maybe, maybe not...
Super Bowl LV will take place in Tampa, Florida this coming Sunday where the Kansas City Chiefs and Tampa Bay Buccaneers will go head-to-head for the Lombardi Trophy. While it typically takes a strong offense, defense, and special teams unit to win a championship in the NFL, there is a pattern if you look back at the Super Bowl winning quarterbacks of the past two decades.
A majority of the quarterbacks who have won a Super Bowl in the past twenty years have either been a Hall of Fame considered quarterback, a quarterback on a team friendly deal, or a quarterback who is on their rookie contract. This is interesting considering next season there are sixteen quarterbacks currently scheduled to make over $20 million towards their teams salary cap.
For the 2020 NFL season, the team salary cap total was $198.2 million.
Here are the Super Bowl winning quarterbacks since 2000. The years are listed by NFL season, not year of the Super Bowl.
2019 – Kansas City Chiefs (Mahomes/rookie deal)
2018 – New England Patriots (Brady/future HoF)
2017 – Philadelphia Eagles (Wentz/rookie deal and Foles/backup money)
2016 – New England Patriots (Brady/future HoF)
2015 – Denver Broncos (Manning/HoF)
2014 – New England Patriots (Brady/future HoF)
2013 – Seattle Seahawks (Russell Wilson/rookie deal)
2012 – Baltimore Ravens (Flacco/rookie deal)
2011 – New York Giants (Eli Manning/big money contract)
2010 – Green Bay Packers (Aaron Rodgers/first year of extension, low cap hit/back-loaded contract)
2009 – New Orleans Saints (Drew Brees/during prove-it contact with Saints/average $10 million a season)
2008 – Pittsburgh Steelers (Big Ben/rookie deal)
2007 – New York Giants (Eli Manning/rookie deal)
2006 – Indianapolis Colts (Peyton Manning/big money contract)
2005 – Pittsburgh Steelers (Big Ben/Rookie deal)
2004 – New England Patriots (Brady/Prove-It Extension)
2003 – New England Patriots (Brady/Prove-It Extension)
2002 – Tampa bay Buccaneers (Brad Johnson/low money vet)
2001 – New England Patriots (Brady/Rookie minimum deal)
2000 – Baltimore Ravens (Trent Dilfer/low money vet)
There’s really only one exception on the list above that doesn’t fit the narrative of rookie deal/team friendly deal/HoF caliber quarterback, and that’s Eli Manning and the New York (football) Giants winning it in 2011.
The point is, in a league where even average to good quarterbacks are getting paid high amounts of money, is it really worth doing it that way if you want to chase a championship? In other words… is it worth paying guys like Carson Wentz, Jared Goff, Kirk Cousins, Matt Ryan, Jimmy Garapollo, and Matthew Stafford elite quarterback money when none of them have consistently performed at that level from year to year?
Yes, it takes way more to win a Super Bowl than just a quarterback, but if you are paying less at the quarterback position, there are more funds available to solidify other parts of a roster.
Let’s take a look at the AFC and see what teams were playing in the divisional round of the playoffs this season – Kansas City, Buffalo, Cleveland, and Baltimore. All four of those teams have their starting quarterback currently on a rookie contract, and are therefore able to spend more money on other areas of their roster.
It’s true that Patrick Mahomes signed an insane 10-year/$503 million contract before the 2020 season, but in 2020 and 2021, he’s still (technically) on his rookie contract. The first year of his new 10-year deal doesn’t go into effect until 2022. However, with the way it was structured, part of the money on that new contract will go against the cap in 2021. Mahomes' cap hit for 2021 will flirt around $24 million, which is roughly a $19 million increase from what it is this year. That’s right, Mahomes' cap hit for 2020 was around $5 million, which is ranked No. 32 in the league for quarterback pay this season.
Now let’s look at the NFC teams who were still around come the divisional round of the playoffs this season – Tampa Bay, Green Bay, New Orleans, and Los Angeles. Three of those teams, Tampa Bay, Green Bay, and New Orleans, are led by future HoF quarterbacks in Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers, and Drew Brees. LA is led by Jared Goff, who this year also had one of the top league defenses and likely Defensive Player of the Year in Aaron Donald.
Maybe there are too many teams who are paying too much for average quarterback play, or maybe it's all just circumstantial. Regardless, the Kansas City Chiefs will face some severe challenges in the seasons ahead when Mahomes new contract begins to cost a lot more against the books.
Super Bowl 55 will kickoff this Sunday at 5:30 pm CT on CBS in Tampa, Florida. Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs will look to win their second straight Super Bowl, while Tampa Bay aims to get their second Super Bowl title in franchise history and their first since 2002. For Tom Brady, this is his tenth Super Bowl appearance. A win would give him seven for his historic career.